Source link By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren 14.6% and Amy Klobuchar 9.6%. Nationally , it’s 28.8% Biden, 22.5% Sanders, 14.1% Warren, 8.5% Michael Bloomberg and 6.0% Buttigieg. In the past two weeks, Biden and particularly Sanders have gained, mostly at the expense of Warren and Buttigieg. Iowa is important because it helps to winnow the field of candidates, and candidates who exceed expectations often get a surge in their national voting intentions. However, the almost all-white Iowa does not represent the overall Democratic primary electorate. Biden has polled strongly with black voters, but not so well with whites. Read more: Morrison’s approval ratings crash over bushfires in first 20...